As we remember the fall of the Berlin Wall, there is debate in the U.S. and Europe as to what ultimately led to the fall of the Soviet Empire. Whether it was the pressure that Reagan applied on the Soviets (and less commonly acknowledged, Carter’s pressure on human rights), or whether it was the German policy of Ostpolitik, is unclear, and something that historians will no doubt continue to study and debate.

What is clear is that the Soviet Empire collapsed in large part because of economic problems rather than a military defeat. As we look back at 1979, I think there is another important event to think about that is relevant to the U.S. today. That was the same year when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. A decade later they withdrew their troops, accepted defeat, and watched as their empire collapsed.

In October 2001, the U.S. began its own war with Afghanistan. A war which continues to this day, and that our new president is planning to ask Congress for yet another “supplemental” appropriation for, this time for $50 billion. Our new president is also planning to further increase the number of U.S. troops deployed in Afghanistan, beyond the 68,000 that are already there or en route.

While this may appear to have nothing to do with the City of Falls Church, in fact it does. The U.S. economy continues to struggle, we have the highest unemployment rate in decades, state and local governments are cutting social services and spending on education. Yet the spending on war continues unabated as the federal government runs record deficits with no concern for the future financial health of our country.

The Soviet empire and Soviet economy collapsed after a decade of war in Afghanistan. The U.S. has been fighting in Afghanistan for eight years now; what will our country be like when our war reaches the ten year mark? More importantly, what can we do now to try to avoid the same fate as the Soviet empire?

I do worry about the use of a nuclear weapon, and an out of control nuclear escalation that might well follow.

For example, a nuclear weapon explosion could occur because of accident — our own handling of and security for nuclear weapons has had gaps. Others may have greater deficiencies and gaps. When nuclear weapons are on “hair triggers,” the time to investigate carefully and reach a proper conclusion might not be available. Escalation to an all-out launch of nuclear weapons around the earth is certainly possible.

A nuclear weapon or weapons could be put to use because control of the weapon(s) and the delivery system had come into the control of a person or group that wanted to use the weapons. I wonder, how would we react if we detected a launch toward us of a Russian multi-nuclear armed ICBM, and the Russian government flashed us the assertion that the laumch had been initiated by a rogue group that had seized control of the missle site. How would we respond to nuclear hits on a half-dozen or more cities and important sites in the Homeland with hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of dead and injured, enormous physical destruction, and radioactive fallout spewing out from the devastated blast sites.

Then there is the possibility of a national government deliberately choosing to use nuclear weapons. Say North Korea launched nuclear armed missiles against South Korea and/or Japan. Would we then annihilate the 25 million North Koreans who have no say in what their leader and/or his military command decides to do, and add horrendously to the radioactive fall-out and the effects of nuclear blasts on climate? If we did launch nuclear strikes on North Korea, how might other nuclear powers (China and Russia) react?