Comments on: All About Turnout – Part 1: Two Decades of Decline

By: Andy Rankin (Falls Church)

Andy Rankin (Falls Church) — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:51:32 +0000

The PollDaddy polls have limited “security” to prevent people from voting multiple times. It’s not hard to get around, but it does require a little effort to vote more than once. I’d give the PollDaddy results about as much weight as the Mayor’s Facebook results.

This week’s poll asks when such a change to kick in (if a change is made): http://answers.polldaddy.com/poll/2299606/

By: Mary Lynn Hickey

Mary Lynn Hickey — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:48:10 +0000

RE: the FCNP polls, the 76% reported as opposed moving the election can be somewhat misleading if say, just 20 people actually voted in the poll. Another skewing factor is that there are no insurmountable barriers to voting early and often so the reported majority in this poll may be anything but.

By: Jonathan Smythe

Jonathan Smythe — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:26:48 +0000

Pam, that 76% must be stocking the poll. As we know these are not scientific. Mr. Lippman hears the silent majority, those who don’t speak out, vote in polls, or vote in May, and knows they want the election moved. This poll also can’t possibly include the Panera patrons Mr. Sze favors- they’re too busy drinking coffee. The poll clearly wasn’t done on Facebook, or we’d hear differently from the Mayor.

By: Barry Buschow

Barry Buschow — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:43:55 +0000

Excellent commentary George. So at the heart of the matter, as I try to read between everyone’s lines, the Council feels that May elections favor Republicans and small interest groups while November elections favor Democrats. I believe the News-Press recently said this, although the above quotes seem to indicate a change of thought since 2008. Nothing new there. I would like to know what data or reasoning was used. Do more Republicans vote in May, or do we just live in a hotbed for Democrat voting and as such every advantage must be taken?? Such wonderful small town politics……..Let the voters decide……

By: Pam Callison, City of Falls Church

Pam Callison, City of Falls Church — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:49:01 +0000

One interesting bit of information that has not been widely discussed and is contrary to Nick Benton’s recent editorial is the informal poll conducted by the Falls Church News Press, which showed that 76% of respondents opposed moving the election from May to November. The results of the poll can be found at the following link http://answers.polldaddy.com/poll/2187641/?view=results&msg=voted

By: Sara Fitzgerald

Sara Fitzgerald — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 13:06:23 +0000

An additional factor impacting turnout is the extent to which a race is perceived to be competitive. Note that in November 2007, when neither the State Senate candidate nor the House of Delegates candidate faced real opposition, the turnout figure dropped very low (28 %). In November 2006, there was a very close statewide race for the U.S. Senate (Webb versus Allen), which undoubtedly helped produce a turnout of 66 percent. But next November, there will not be a statewide race on the ballot. And it remains to be seen how competitive the race for the U.S. House seat will be, thanks to partisan redistricting that transformed most Virginia congressional districts into “safe” districts for one party or the other.

By: Andy Rankin (Falls Church)

Andy Rankin (Falls Church) — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 19:43:11 +0000

When comparing election turnout numbers I think it’s important to consider what is being voted on, not just what time of year it is. Below is some recent history (other things are voted on in these elections – not just the positions I point out).

The past 3 Presidential elections went like this:

2000 – 86%
2004 – 81%
2008 – 82%

The year after Presidential elections we vote on Governor:

2001 – 58%
2005 – 59%
2009 – 51%

The year after that we elect a Senator:

2002 – 60%
2006 – 66%

And then after that we elect a State Senator:

2003 – 42%
2007 – 28%

These are all November elections and when you average them all together you get a number – but there seem to be obvious trends related to the positions being voted on. The turnout goes down the more local the election becomes. Again, these are November elections – everyone knows about them.

I don’t know why more people tend to vote in elections with national impact as opposed to local impact, but I don’t think it has much to do with when the election is held.