All About Turnout – Part 2: From Old to New & Red to Blue

By GEORGE BROMLEY
Falls Church Times Staff

Falls Church has seen significant changes over the past 20 years that have had a major impact on its character.

Around 1990, after nearly two decades of stagnation, the City began gradually to evolve into a younger, more liberal, and much more transient community.  These demographic and social changes coincided with its greatest increase in population since the 1950s.

The changes also have led to a very different electorate, one which votes Democratic instead of Republican in presidential and congressional elections, and is less likely to vote in local ones.

Falls Church’s population in 1990 was 9,522, almost exactly the same as in 1980 and over 1,200 lower than in 1970.  By 2000 it had climbed back above the 1970 level, but much more had changed than mere numbers.  A survey released in 2001 documented some stunning statistics.

Researchers determined that 43% of the City’s residents had arrived in the last five years and that nearly two-thirds of them had come to Falls Church since 1990.  In the words of the Falls Church News-Press on October 18, 2001, it had become  ”a city of new arrivals.”

In 1990 34.5% of the homes in Falls Church were occupied by residents who had lived there 20 years or longer.  By 2001 the number had dropped to 11.4%.   Homeowners also were younger, the proportion of those 55 or older falling from 42% to 38%.

Although the survey found residents very satisfied with the City (96% rated it as a good or excellent place to live), many were thinking of moving.   Forty-four percent indicated they planned to move in the next decade and 33% in the next five years.

The huge influx of new residents coincided with the drop in May voter turnout from 55% in 1990 to just over one-third in 2000.  Although local  elections were still contested, the Falls Church Citizens Organization (FCCO) slowly faded away during these years, leaving Citizens for a Better City (CBC) candidates with fewer strong challengers.

Over the course of six elections from 1990 to 2000 the CBC won 17 of 21 Council seats.  The general decline in competitiveness, combined with the demographic shift, probably accounted for most of the decline in voter turnout over this period.

The demographic changes of the 1990s have continued in the current decade and may even have accellerated, fueled in part by the recent building boom which added nearly 600 condominium units.  About 20% of the units remain unoccupied, but over one-third have been converted to rentals, which have a much higher turnover rate.

Fewer City residents now are as settled as those in the 1970s or 80s, or as likely to consider themselves stakeholders in the community.  Some gradually may change their perspective, but many will have moved on before developing any strong ties to the community or participating in its political process.

The changes in demographics coincided with a political shift.  For many years the City had leaned Republican, but in the late 1980s it began moving away from the GOP.  By the mid-90s, it was well on its way to becoming one of the most heavily Democratic jurisdictions in Virginia.

After its incorporation as an independent city, Falls Church voted Republican in eight of the next nine presidential elections, the only exception being the Democratic landslide of 1964.

But in 1988 Democrat Michael Dukakis carried the City by 14 votes.  This followed a trend that had started earlier in Alexandria and Arlington, which had voted for Walter Mondale in 1984 and Jimmy Carter in 1976.

The Democratic trend continued in 1990 when the inner suburbs dumped five-term Republican Congressman Stan Parris for Alexandria mayor Jim Moran.   Two years later Bill Clinton won 53% of the vote in Falls Church, a percentage that would only increase in the years ahead.

By the mid-1990s the City had turned Blue, and over the next 15 years it would become even more so, routinely voting Democratic by margins of 2:1 in even-year elections.

As competitiveness among City voters declined in national elections, turnout also declined slightly.  In the four elections from 1988 to 1994 (two presidential and two Congressional), turnout in Falls Church was over 79%.  However, in the elections from 2002 to 2008 it dropped to slightly over 72%, still impressive, but conforming to the downward trend in municipal elections since 1990.

The downward trend was even stronger in the odd-year November elections, which do not involve candidates for national office.  When no gubernatorial contest was on the ballot, local turnout in the fall actually has been lower than in May.

This was not always the case.  In 1995 over 2,900 residents voted in November races for Virginia delegate and senator, a turnout of about 50%.  Democrats won both races easily.

Turnout in such elections then began to fall, declining to around 47% in 1999 and to 42% in 2003.  Four years later, barely 2,000 citizens voted when only an independent candidate opposed Senator Whipple.  By then the turnout had fallen to just 28%.

The only Republican on the local ballot in 2007 was running for Clerk of the Court.  Had the party contested other races turnout almost certainly would have been higher, but given the overall trend, likely nowhere near the level achieved in 1995.

Falls Church’s lower turnout in the odd-year contests follows the pattern observed in both May and in the even-year November elections.  The continued dominance of one party, whether the CBC or the Democrats, results in fewer voters, regardless of the season.

Unless special circumstances prevail, virtually all localities follow the same general pattern as Falls Church, with the highest turnout in presidential elections and the lowest in municipal elections.  However, the May turnout here, even in the current decade, is far higher than that of most jurisdictions.

For example, Leesburg’s turnout in May 2008 was just 8%, barely one-quarter of that achieved in Falls Church City.   Turnout in Alexandria in May 2009 was only15%, even though six council seats were contested.  Falls Church nearly bettered this mark in an uncontested election in 2006.

That fact that May turnout has not declined further since 2000 indicates the strong tradition of civic engagement continues in Falls Church, although not at the level of some points in the past.

As concluded in a 2001 analysis by the League of Women Voters of Falls Church, if local elections were moved to November turnout likely would be higher, but the elections might become very different contests from those held in May, with more partisanship and a diminished focus on local issues.  This might especially be the case if the elections were held in even-numbered years where federal elections brought higher profile candidates and issues to the ballot.

Friday:  The Partisanship Question

Also read Part 1:  Two Decades of Decline